Before the analysis, I'd like to report the total Lincoln Commemorative sales figures, as of 11:59 pm on Monday, Feb. 16, 2009. The Proof version has sold 116,558 coins The Uncirculated total is 61,164, for combined sales of 177,722 units. The total maximum mintage is 500,000 coins (including both Proof and Uncirculated types) of which 50,000 Proof coins are reserved for a special set later this year. (The special set will consist of the Lincoln Commemorative and the four 2009 Proof Lincoln Cent designs struck in 95% copper.)
With a maximum mintage of 500k, the 227,722 coins spoken for above leaves more than half of the issue unsold at the moment. How did it happen that a commemorative that was expected to sell out within hours, sold less than half the mintage?